How will new cars age?

"Shift24" (the-nope) 11/18/2016 at 12:22 • Filed to: ZR2, Old vs New

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The reason I bring this up is that I saw a 90s S10 ZR2 with some battle scars. A rear shock absorber just hanging off the rear axle and not attached to the frame, typical fender well rust, whole cut out where the cab corners rust, and what I assume was cat back exhaust as there were no mufflers.

And with the new ZR2, its miles ahead in tech, reliability, quality, and so on but it is still a truck and will probably be used as one eventually when they are not offroading (doubtful as most will probably be pavement dwellers). But with its expensive shocks, diffs, and other toys will it ever get cheap enough to be haggled over on Craigslist even though the owner knows what hes got? Will any new cars with high end infotainment centers be worth looking into even though the guy who posted the add used screen shots of the cars from his phone?

In seriousness, in 10 to 20 years will we have the kind of adds we do with the current 10 to 20 year old cars or will these cars be even worth looking into because it cost $2000 to replace a shock or infotainment center?

Jimmy Johnson’s Baja truck for your time

Urambo Tauro > Shift24 11/18/2016 at 12:34

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In just about any town in the US, you can find a guy restoring an old Mustang or Corvette in his garage. But I can’t imagine trying to restore one of today’s cars fifty years from now.

I think that cars hit a sweet spot between longevity and serviceability somewhere in the ’80s or ’90s.

Birddog > Shift24 11/18/2016 at 12:34

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As long as there are BHPH car lots and people that care more about image than their Gas bill there will be hoopties. Modern cars will not age well.

DynamicWeight > Shift24 11/18/2016 at 12:46

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This is a common trope, that modern cars will be impossible to fix. I don’t really think this is true. The internet provides such a wealth of information that, at least for the popular models, there will be enough people tinkering that they will be able to figure out all the computer stuff and fix it. Plus, aftermarket companies will develop options that are cheaper for things like magnetic ball massaging struts.

So sure cars are more complicated now, but we’re also much better as a society at documenting and sharing that complication. I think it will balance out.

shop-teacher > Shift24 11/18/2016 at 12:53

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It’s a really good question that only time will tell. I suspect we’ll be OK though.

shop-teacher > DynamicWeight 11/18/2016 at 12:54

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I think the real question is, when will the parts be so expensive that it relegates the car to the junkyard before it’s time. I suspect we’ll be OK, but it’s a valid question.

gogmorgo - rowing gears in a Grand Cherokee > Shift24 11/18/2016 at 12:56

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I’m also curious about how well touch-screen interfaces and massive obsolete infotainment systems will age.

But as far as the vehicles themselves go, I expect we’ll still see a bunch of today’s cars around for the next twenty years or so trucks for 30, just in varying states of cosmetic decay. Like the vehicles from the late 90's and early 2000's that are still around today, largely mechanically sound, just maybe with some broken interior parts, scuff and scrapes, accumulating neglected maintenance. My work truck this summer was a 99 Chevy 1500. An old law enforcement truck (hard life in the backcountry) with 150,000 miles that spent the last 30,000 or so puttering around a campground at 10mph getting abused by teenagers and trees, so completely beat to shit cause it was just an old truck no one cared about. Except it still runs and drives pretty great, hauls a ton of crap, will do 80mph all day and lay some pretty decent rubber. Parts fail, you replace them, maybe not with the OEM parts, but it’s a decent workhorse that is cheaper and easier to continue putting new parts onto than to replace. I imagine any new vehicle, especially trucks, will be about the same. Maybe 30 years down the line when the ZR2's super-fancy shocks fail, they’ll get rebuilt, or simply removed and replaced with some not-so fancy cheaper versions. The ride won’t be as great, but the guy who paid $5000 (wildly inflated future dollars) for a 30-year-old truck isn’t going to care about the ride, so long as it runs and drives and he can haul stuff with it. Hell, he may not even care if the 4x4 isn’t working, even though it probably will be.

Shift24 > Birddog 11/18/2016 at 13:01

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That’s what I am worried about though. With todays CL you can find a range of older cars that have a range of varying degrees of abuse. Most can be brought back up (aside from rust buckets) relatively easily. New cars you will have to be am electrical engineer to do anything

Shift24 > shop-teacher 11/18/2016 at 13:03

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Let’s hope because from what I have seen initially it’s not looking so good.

Pickup_man > DynamicWeight 11/18/2016 at 13:09

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I agree, people learn the skills required to do the job, and it’s so much easier with the internet. I’m not old enough to remember the transition, but I’ve heard enough to know that people were scared of long term problems with fuel injected cars, vs carburated cars, because carbs were what they knew, and FI was new and scary. Now fuel injection is commonplace. So while infotainment systems may be foreign to us, there are highschoolers and teenager who’s skills with electronics and programming astounds me. I’m a 26 year old engineer, and some of these kids could walk circles around me when it comes to electronics. Modern cars will age just fine. (apart from maybe styling that is)

shop-teacher > Shift24 11/18/2016 at 13:16

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You’re not going to see me running out and buying a highly depreciated Mercedes or anything, but many do and some of them manage to get away with it.

That Bastard Kurtis - An Attempt to Standardize My Username Across Platforms > Shift24 11/18/2016 at 13:20

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About the same as 90s and 2000s cars, I’d imagine. Where I live it’s really an event to see an 80s car on the road today, and I expect in a few years it’ll start to be the same with 90s cars. The car buying public is perpetually 7 years behind, so in 2023 your 2016s will be getting shitty and neglected just like the 2009s of today.

That said, I think they may age a little better than the 90s and early 2000s cars just by virtue of being better cars.

adamftw > DynamicWeight 11/18/2016 at 13:22

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I agree. People said the same thing about EFI, computers, etc.

Shift24 > Urambo Tauro 11/18/2016 at 14:17

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I totally agree, I feel the gap for cars and technology from 1900 to the mid to late 1980s is MUCH smaller of a gap than the jump from the 1990s to current. And i will say even some of the early 00s you can get away fixing by yourself before you need electrician to start telling you what to do.

Urambo Tauro > Shift24 11/18/2016 at 14:32

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True.

Even though I’m not old enough to remember , I’m nevertheless aware that cars from, let’s say, the ’60s were pretty much junk after 100,000 miles. A lot of improvements have been made since then, and I’ve seen cars go past 200,000 miles and beyond with proper maintenance.

But I think things are going backwards again. Manufacturers seem to be more ruthless about profit than ever, building the least car they can get away with so long as it will last the warranty period. And even today’s consumer culture is treating cars like disposable items. There’s not much incentive to build true quality.

Shift24 > That Bastard Kurtis - An Attempt to Standardize My Username Across Platforms 11/18/2016 at 14:38

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That is true but the 80s for domestics was a shit show. Where as with japanese models (that arnt rusted out) and Euro models shine. Main example I see more E30, w124, VW hatches, and Japanese sedans (camry, civic, and so on) than I do any domestics not including trucks.

Though that does bring up the point about build quality. Now a days cars are getting points off because people think the infotainment center is annoying not that there transmission blew up at 20K miles.

BigBlock440 > Shift24 11/18/2016 at 14:46

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I had also wondered about that, but I feel like this question’s been asked for 10 years now. Imma say they’ll hold up as we’ve come to expect. Sure lots of shit on them’ll stop working, but as long as they move and stop, people will keep driving them.

That Bastard Kurtis - An Attempt to Standardize My Username Across Platforms > Shift24 11/18/2016 at 14:54

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Most everybody builds a good car now. The average 2016 car is a far better car than the average 1996 car. The exception to this is Mitsubishi, who I think are still selling leftover 1996s as new.

Shift24 > Urambo Tauro 11/18/2016 at 15:10

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Have a 1992 sitting at 340k which to your point, is about the top of the hill. The domestics finally figured people wanted cars that would not fall apart in 100K and the japanese took off showing their cars could go a million miles or more. German Engineering still meant quality back then too.

And I agree to a part, Id say most manufacturers are building cars to show off tech features and other new gadgets which will be obsolete in 4 years so then you have to upgrade to the new one like with phones. Thats why leases are so big right now. But a Toyota is still a Toyota, a Honda is a Honda, and any 2500 or 3500 truck will hit 300K without wincing. 

mazda616 > Shift24 11/18/2016 at 17:48

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The biggest detriment to today’s cars is their infotainment tech systems. How will Chrysler’s UConnect behave 15 years from now, long after they stopped issuing software updates for it? Not well, I assume.

My 2016 Mazda6 has the “Mazda Connect” system and I know it’ll be infuriating by age ten or so, as well. Computers, even in cars, don’t age well.